POPULATION

INTRODUCTION

This section analyzes some basic statistics concerning the population composition of the township's residents. Where available, population figures and trends are traced back over several decades, although most of the emphasis is placed on the 1970 population since this is the year of the last census. Comparisons are also made between the township and the county to indicate various population relationships over periods of time.

These figures are important because they indicate the various ages and numbers of people living in the township over periods of time. From this, trends and patterns can be described which affect the social and economic makeup of the township. Such data may indicate how the population will be altered in future years, and thus how township services may have to be structured to meet the demands for school facilities, police protection, sanitary sewer services, public administration, streets and roads, etc.

Throughout this section, the sources of data have been the U.S. Bureau of the Census, and Population Characteristics and Estimates 1973 by the Montgomery County Planning Commission.

POPULATION TRENDS

Figure C-l traces the growth of the township and the county from 1940 to 1970. From a population of almost 40,000 in 1940, Lower Merion has increased by almost 24,000 people or 60% over the thirty year period. This compares to a 335,000 or 16% population increase experienced in the county over the same period. However, in spite of the large population increase in the county, the township is still the largest municipality in the county, holding 10% of the county's population. It is apparent from Figure C-l that most of Lower Merion's growth took place prior to 1940 or shortly thereafter, whereas the county has grown significantly since the 1960's.

From 1940 to 1950 Lower Merion's population has grown by 23%; almost the same growth rate experienced throughout the county. But although Lower Merion's growth stayed about the same from 1950 to 1960 - 22% - the county's growth rate soared to 46%. By 1970, the township's growth rate was reduced to 7% which was only one-third the county's growth rate. Also, from 1950 to 1960 the township's 9,179 population increase accounted for 14% of the county's population growth. In the next decade the township received only 10% of the county's population growth, and by 1970 this figure was further reduced to 4%. Quite clearly these statistics indicate that the urban growth wave has already swept over Lower Merion and is now progressing to other parts of the county. From 1960 to 1970 population growth was reduced in both the township and county, but was still substantial in the county in absolute figures. The decade ending in 1970 saw a 107,000 population increase throughout the county, compared to 4,174 for the township. The trend indicates that the times of large population growth are past in Lower Merion, if for no other reason that most of the developable land has been utilized. In the future the township can probably expect small increases in total population,and more significant changes within the composition of the population base.

Figure C-1

POPULATION GROWTH 1940-1970

Figure C-2 gives the 1950, 1960, and 1970 population figures for all 62 municipalities in the county. In 1960 Lower Merion had 11.5% of the county's total population, which ranked it first in the county. This was followed by Abington with 55,831 people, then by Norristown with a population of 38,925, and then by Cheltenham with 35,990 people. By 1970 Cheltenham had replaced Norristown for third place.

However, in terms of absolute population growth, Figure C-2 points up the fact that townships other than Lower Merion in the southern part of the county are absorbing most of the growth. Between 1960 and 1970 Lower Merion's 4,050 population increase was only the 12th largest in the county. First was Upper Dublin with an increase of 9,265 followed by Abington with 7,068 and then Upper Merion with 6,647 people. The fourth largest population increase, 6,015, took place in Lower Moreland. Again, it is apparent that most of the population growth is now being concentrated on municipalities located further from Philadelphia.

Figure C-2

POPULATION OF MUNICIPALITIES IN MONTGOMERY COUNTY
1950-1970

AGE COMPOSITION 1970

The age composition figures contained in Figure C-3 point out that from 1960 to 1970 the shifts in age groups in the township roughly followed the same trends noted in the county. The percentage of pre-school age children decreased, as did those in the 25 to 64 age bracket. Percentage increases were noted in the 5 to 24 and 65 and over age categories.

The major differences between the county and township occurred in the degree of change over this ten year period. The percentage of children under 5 decreased by 10% in Lower Merion, and by 4% in the county. The percentage of senior citizens aged 65 and over increased 1% in the county and 2% in the township.

Also, these figures show that the age composition of Lower Merion's population is not quite the same as the county's profile. In 1970 pre-school age children comprised only 6% of Lower Merion's population while the corresponding figure for the county was 8%. In the 65 and over bracket 14% of the township's population was in this category in 1970, compared to only 10% for the county.

In absolute figures the number of township residents aged 65 and over increased by 2,085 between 1960 and 1970. The township in 1970 had 9,170 residents over the age of 65, and it is apparent from these total figures that the population composition of the township will continue to grow older. Because of the decreasing numbers of young children and increasing numbers of older people, probably the township will have to put more emphasis on programs and services that reflect this shift in age composition in the future.

Ages of male and females for the year 1970 show that up to age 14, there are slightly more males than females. From age 15 to over 75, the number of females exceeds the number of males. This trend becomes more pronounced as ages increase, so that by age 75 and over there are more than twice as many females as males. As a result the age 75 and over females constitute 3.6% of the township's population compared to only 1.7% for the males.

Figure C-3

AGE COMPOSITION 1960-1976

In total, males comprise 45% and females 55% of the township's population. In the county as a whole, males make up 48% of the population, and females 52%. In the age 65 and over brackets, the differences between the township and the greater Philadelphia region become even more pronounced. In both the region and county, males age 65 and over comprise 8% of the population, and females 11%. This compares to 12% for males and 16% for females in Lower Merion who are over the age of 65.

Lower Merion, which already has a more elderly population base than the county or region, can expect this trend to continue as people in the middle age brackets grow older and the birth rate continues to decline.

Figure C-4

MALE AND FEMALE AGE COMPOSITION
1970

LOWER MERION TOWNSHIP

EDUCATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS 1970

The 1970 Census also tabulated the educational achievements of the population, which are shown in Figure C-5. The first part of the Figure indicates the number of children enrolled in each educational level as of 1970. The percentage of college enrollments in Lower Merion are almost double the county's, but this probably reflects the number of colleges located in the township.

The second part of the Figure notes the level of education obtained by those included in the survey. The percentage figures show that generally,the residents of Lower Merion are more highly educated than the residents of the county. About 51% of Lower Merion's population has college training, compared to only 29% for the county. Accordingly, the county has a greater percentage of residents who have educational levels only through high school compared to the township.

Figure C-5

EDUCATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS 1970

INCOME CHARACTERISTICS 1970

Another measure of the population is income levels, which are noted herein for the year 1970. Basically, these statistics show that most of the residents of Lower Merion enjoy a relatively high level of income compared to the remainder of the county; About 38% of the township's families in 1970 had incomes from $0 to $14,999, compared to 65% for the rest of the county. Both the township and the remainder of the county had about 25% of its families in the $15,000 to $24,999 range. But the next income range, $25,000 to $49,999, contained 26% of Lower Merion's families compared to 8% for the remainder of the county. The last income category, $50,000 and over, contained 12% of Lower Merion's families compared to 2% for the remainder of the county.

The median figures show that Lower Merion residents in 1970 had a median family income of $19,999, compared to $12,749 for the entire county and $10,783 for the Philadelphia Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area.

Figure C-6

INCOME CHARACTERISTICS 1970

OCCUPATIONS 1970

In 1970 the U.S. Census listed all employed persons by nine major occupational groups, from professional to private household workers. Of the 25,107 employed township residents counted that year, about 30% were listed in the professional and technical occupational category. This compares to 19% for the remainder of the county residents. The next three largest categories of occupations for township residents consisted of managers and administrators, clerical, and sales workers, which accounted for 50% of all employed residents. These same three categories accounted for only 37% of the employed persons living in the remainder of Montgomery County. Also, only 10% of the employed township residents were listed in the craftsmen, operative and laborer categories, compared to 35% for the remainder of the county residents. An interesting highlight of this listing is the fact that 4% of the township's employed residents were private household workers, compared to 1% throughout the remainder of the county. Almost one-third of all private household workers in the county live in Lower Merion Township.

In general these occupational listings for Lower Merion correspond to the income data which shows that many township residents are well paid and hold professional positions.

Figure C-7

OCCUPATIONS 1970

CLASSIFICATION OF EMPLOYED PERSONS 1970

According to the 1970 Census, an equal percentage of residents of Lower Merion listed their employment in manufacturing and retail trade than any other industrial occupations. There were 16% in manufacturing and 16% in retail trade. In the county, manufacturing was also the largest single category, but with 34% followed by retail sales with 15%. The second largest category in Lower Merion is educational services, followed by finance and then other professional services. The high ranking of educational services in the township illustrates the impact that schools and colleges have on this area compared to the county.

Figure C-8

CLASSIFICATION OF EMPLOYED PERSONS 1970

TRANSPORTATION AND JOB LOCATIONS 1970

The 1970 Census was also analyzed to determine where people work and how they commute to work. In 1970 61% of employed township residents drove their cars to work. When auto passengers were included, the number who drove to work increased to 70%. The comparable figure for the county was 82%. More than twice the percentage of township residents used the train to commute to work than the county residents. This is obviously explained by the fact that the township has available passenger rail facilities which are lacking in most of the remainder of the county.

Statistics regarding where jobs are located compared to where workers reside indicate that township residents work in Philadelphia to a greater extent than other Montgomery County residents. About 39% of the employed residents living in Lower Merion in 1970 worked in Philadelphia, compared to only 18% for the remainder of the county. The second most frequent place of employment for all county residents was within the county itself. However, only 36% of Lower Merion's employed residents worked within the county compared to 63% for all other residents. Again this illustrates the influence that commuter rail facilities have on the township. The opportunity to utilize the rail services in Lower Merion, which are not present in many other parts of the county, is indicated by the fact that in 1970 11% of the township's employed residents worked in the Philadelphia Central Business District, compared to only 3% for the remainder of the county residents.

Figure C-9

TRANSPORTATION AND JOB LOCATIONS 1970

POPULATION PROJECTIONS

The purpose of Figure C-10 is to compare the projected 1985 population of the township with all the other municipalities in the county, as put forth by the Montgomery County Planning Commission. This projection puts the township's 1985 population at 69,000, which would be an increase of 5,530 over 1970. According to this estimate the township would still be the largest municipality in the county with 9.1% of the population, but the absolute growth over the fifteen year period would be only the fifth largest experienced in the county. Upper Merion, Lower Providence, Upper Dublin, and Whitpain Townships are all projected to receive larger population increments during this time than Lower Merion Township.

These projections are contrasted to Figure C-ll which has been compiled by the Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission. According to the D.V.R.P.C. the township will never have 69,000 people, but will peak out at 68,000 people by 1990.

A third set of projections, not shown here, was made by the Township Planning Department in 1975 to estimate the January 1975 population. By using actual building permits, immigration, births and deaths, this projection set the 1975 population at 63,985, which is only several hundred more than the official 63,594 population figure recorded by the U.S. Census in 1970.

The actual number of residential building permits issued in the last seven years is as follows:

These permits average 180 per year, and indicate that the total population increase from 1970 to 1976 should have been about 3,700 if based solely on building permits. However, through 1975 there were 911 more deaths than births in the township. The result of the estimated and projected population figures is that the population increases from 1970 to 1975 have been minimal, and that by 1980 the population will probably increase by only one or two thousand people. By the year 2000 the township's total population is estimated at about 68,000 . to 69,000 people.

Figure C-10

MUNICIPAL POPULATION PROJECTIONS

BY M.C.P.C.⁽¹⁾ 1970-1985

⁽¹⁾ Montgomery County Planning Commission - 1975